Google win probability accuracy

This application is a continuation-in-part of U. The contents of the foregoing application is hereby incorporated herein for all purposes. This invention relates to novel methods of awarding bonus awards on games of chance. Playing games of chance is a popular recreational activity.

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There are many types of games of chance including table games where players wager against a live dealer such as blackjack, Pai Gow, roulette, Baccarat. Other types of games of chance are offered as automated machines. Examples include slots, poker, bingo, etc. Still other types of games of chance allow players to wager against one another, such as a poker table.

In return for a wager, games of chance generate randomly determined outcomes, some of which result in a winning event. Games of chance are often played with wagers having financial value but some games of chance are played with points or other freely available currency having no fiscal worth. Games of chance may be played in casinos, or at home using electronic devices or mechanical equipment. Gambling via Internet, whether for fin or for money, is also a popular activity.

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Games of chance typically associate a winning event with a specific game outcome. To increase player interest, bonus awards which are won independently of any single game outcome are sometimes offered. Mystery bonuses are awarded as a function of game play and are increasingly likely to be won with each game played.

Here the mystery award is a progressive amount because it grows in value as a function of each wager made until it is won.

google win probability accuracy

Once won, the award is initialized to a starting value and the process begins again. A mystery progressive award is defined by a starting and ending maximum value.

The award must be won before the award grows larger than the maximum value. A winning number W is randomly selected from within the range of all numbers between the starting and ending award values. A winning value W is chosen, at of FIG.

The Secret Betting Strategy That Beats Online Bookmakers

When a wager occurs, the award value is increased as a function of the wager size A fixed award mystery bonus works exactly like the progressive mystery bonus award just described, except at stepthe winner is paid the fixed amount— credits for example—instead of the incremented AWARD amount. Enclosure houses the displays and may be configured as an overhead sign, built into the gaming machine, or both.

Each display, andrepresents one progressive mystery bonus award and each grows as a function of wagers made in any gaming machine linked to these awards. Each of the four award values has a winning number W chosen for it during initialization and each award is won independently of the others.

The range for each progressive award,and are made known to players so they may understand that, as each progressive award grows, it is more likely to be won.Introducing completely a new concept in picking the winning combinations or numbers in lottery, Lotto, and in similar gambling events at maximum certainty and probability levels there by minimizing the number of tickets they would actually need to purchase and It improves the numerical odds of picking winning lottery numbers and effectively saves money compared to all the other leading lottery number pickers.

The lottery is a random game of chance. So, what? It's fun, exciting and easy to play. In lottery and similar pool games the events are totally random in nature and forecasting of next event cannot be evaluated by any of present statistical analytical methods. Let us take an example of results of local single digit lottery daily draws as 3, 4, 1, 6, 2, 5, 5, 1, 0, 2, 5, 2, 5, 9, 8,……. Look at the way the numbers appeared in each lottery draw.

There is no relation, correlation or any type of mathematical formulas connected and totally chaotic and you cannot predict the next event in the lottery however expert you are in the statistical analytical mathematics or astrology, tarot readings, numerology or by any sort of fortune telling methods.

There is no fun playing in gambling of lottery by picking numbers at random or by selecting as lucky nos. For incorporating any system in probability theory, the population or the data selected, must have a trend line and not merely of random in occurrence. The figures of sales, inventory, population growth etc. The mostly used systems are linear regression method and Monte Carlo simulation procedures.

Both these methods use conditional level of forecasting wherein each event should have parallel existing values in lieu. In my quest to find a suitable method in forecasting a winning number as of a lottery, with high degree of accuracy and after many years of testing of various statistical analytical methods in the theory of probability has resulted in stumbling upon a system of mathematical application and I call it pyramidon system. This system offers an incredibly real and practical correlation with gambling randomized events; lottery ; horse racing, sports betting, stock market forecasts.

google win probability accuracy

It will be sheer luck if you win and there is no fun in betting in this way having a high uncertainty level of forecasting. Suppose that you have come across a strip of the serial number of your electricity bill, where in the all the initial six digits of the past lottery result, that is 2, 5, 1, 0, 3, 4, are exactly coinciding with? It is not a thrill? In betting the next number of your electricity bill? Well, there is a high level of chance of occurrence of the next digit of your electricity bill.

This method is known as conditional probability and all the forecasting of winning events in the said pyramidon system is totally based on. When you take the past records of certain winning numbers of any lottery or similar gambling event in a serial format and workout according to the methods of the pyramidon system, you will get the conditional format or the trend line.

This trend line or the conditional format generated in the pyramidon is the main feature having a trend of occurrence of the numbers and thus eliminating the dreaded factor of total randomness and uncertainty level in calculating probability factors. Not only this, you can use the conditional probability methods like Linear regression method, Monte Carlo simulations and many of correlation method in forecasting the winning lottery numbers.

This pyramidon method is the only method in the application of forecasting the winning event, far advanced then any other systems of statistical analytical systems that are there existing to-day. No other methods or systems of statistical probability analytical method could be applied in a satisfactory level than pyramidon system in forecasting the winning numbers in the gambling and other similar events.

Not only this method is very simple in application, it is much interesting in the working-out and evaluating the winning event at highest probability level. You will find lot of trend lines generated in the pyramidon which are very much in correlation with the past record of the winning numbers and some times you can find that a particular trend line in the pyramidon is exactly coinciding with that of the past winning number format and in such situation your logical mind will definitely come to a level of certainty in selecting the next number of the trend line as winning figure with confidence.

Now let us go for the real stuff and get the thrill and excitement in looking at the astonishing working of pyramidon system. Let us get started with the working of the pyramidon system and observe the astonishing trend lines or conditional formats that are generated in order to have maximum confidence levels of probability in selecting the winning numbers. If you know some thing about the famous Fibonacci numbers and awesome properties associated with, then you know how the Fibonacci numerical system is having a striking correlation with the phenomena of growth and evolution in the nature.

The growth of plant leaves, flowers, crystals are some examples wherein the growth pattern is seen associated with the Fibonacci serial pattern. Similarly I could find a Fibonacci type of numerical system is hidden in the total random generation of numerical events, having a trend and conditional level as found in the Fibonacci series and very much useful in implementing in the probability theory and forecasting the winning combinations in the lottery. Let us take a simple example and assume that below is the past record of a lottery draws of one of your favorite single digit lottery, taken in series.

X is the 8th event that has to be forecasted wherein you can win nine times of the amount you get against the odds of In the subsequent columns, B, C, D, …. G, are numbers of subtraction. For example in the column B, the figures -2, 4, -1, -3,… etc. Add all the numbers in each row to get the results as of column T.

Observe that the sequence formation in column T.Effective date : In one embodiment, sets of outcomes are stored in memory, each set of outcomes associated with an amount bet or a range of bets.

The possible outcomes for larger bets represent a higher probability of receiving a winning combination or payout. The outcome of a game or round is determined by mapping a random number generated by a random number generator to outcomes stored in memory. Gaming is an increasingly popular activity. Over the years, a variety of new gaming devices and games have been developed. Generally, casinos seek new games and gaming devices which entice players to play more frequently, since this increases the revenue to the casino.

Players seek new games and gaming devices which are more entertaining and which the player believes has an increased probability of resulting in a win. One of the most popular of gaming machines is the slot machine. Slot machines were originally mechanically controlled, where the reels were made to spin about an axis by the rotational momentum exerted by the pull of its handle.

The angular position of the reels determined the nature of the symbols or the outcome and determined whether a bettor received a winning outcome and an associated payout. A variety of modifications to the slot machine have been introduced over the years.

Now, the reels of slot machines are electronically controlled. In other instances, the reels have been eliminated altogether, the reels simulated in video form on one or more video displays.

Other features have been added to slot and other gaming machines. Current gaming machines utilize video monitors having higher screen resolutions and color depth.

Audio has gone from a mono speaker to stereo surround sound. These improvements provide for an increased level of entertainment from the perspective of the player. A variety of features have been introduced to entice new players to play gaming machines or to cause existing players to play more frequently.

For example, bonus games have been added to existing games. The games may also be configured to award large jackpots for certain winning combinations. Many gaming machines have been configured to accept bets of different sizes.

Casinos generally desire that a player bet as large a wager as possible, as such generally increases the revenue of the casino. As one example, a slot machine may be configured to accept a bet comprising one, two or three coins of a particular denomination. As is known, these slot machines are configured to pay winning amounts which are an integer multiplier of the number of bets or coins wagered.I freely admit that my motive behind this conversation was personal.

Falcons win probability after Patriots TD- None of them can be trusted, was the common refrain on social media.

Ben Alamar: The main elements are the [betting] line, the down and distance, and the time of the game. If you believe that Tom Brady is a really good quarterback, that may influence the way you look at these.

The Win Probabilities right now are really good. Maybe two percent, not 40 percent.

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BA: If you go through that game, so many things had to happen. The Falcons offense has to really collapse, for example, and that has nothing to do with Tom Brady. The key holding call. BA: We start with what the pre-game odds. That 25 percent is harder to put in context. Sports are relatively controlled in what we can measure. In politics there are so many intangible factors.

You can build really intricate models but there are so many factors to capture. BA: Our models do a really good job, but as we saw in Super Bowl 51, there will always be rare events.

Those are really, really rare. This is going to be a rare historical event. As I said, this really did tell the story of game. All of us are now basically into week 4 or 5 or 6 or more of quarantining as we do our best to try to fight off the coronavirus and save lives. It also means a lot of us are dealing with a problem that is far, far, far less serious - bad hairdos that needed to be cut like three weeks ago.

I know because I was finally able to give myself a cut last week and took the time to give myself a mohawk because it seems like a good time to get weird. Tua Tagovailoa instantly became one of the biggest wild card prospects in the NFL Draft class after he suffered a season-ending injury at Alabama, but his situation became even more uncertain due to the coronavirus crisis.

As a result, no NFL team was able to get up-to-date information on Tagovailoa's physical condition, and have been forced to rely on his NFL teams will hope to land their new franchise star next week in the NFL Draft, and with the first round expected to be loaded with offensive skill players, the race for the offensive Rookie of the Year award should be fascinating whenever football is allowed to resume. Expectations will be high for quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, but will any of them be able to produce a Ben Roethlisberger-type rookie season?

Roethlisberger, the 11th overall pick inwent an incredible as a rookie starter before falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship, Please enter an email address. Something went wrong. More Stories Brett Favre looks a lot different after dyeing his hair orange during quarantine Andy Nesbitt.AlphaGo is a computer program that plays the board game Go. It was chosen by Science as one of the Breakthrough of the Year runners-up on 22 December AlphaGo and its successors use a Monte Carlo tree search algorithm to find its moves based on knowledge previously "learned" by machine learningspecifically by an artificial neural network a deep learning method by extensive training, both from human and computer play.

google win probability accuracy

This neural net improves the strength of tree search, resulting in higher quality of move selection and stronger self-play in the next iteration. Go is considered much more difficult for computers to win than other games such as chessbecause its much larger branching factor makes it prohibitively difficult to use traditional AI methods such as alpha—beta pruningtree traversal and heuristic search. Almost two decades after IBM's computer Deep Blue beat world chess champion Garry Kasparov in the matchthe strongest Go programs using artificial intelligence techniques only reached about amateur 5-dan level, [11] and still could not beat a professional Go player without a handicap.

According to DeepMind's David Silverthe AlphaGo research project was formed around to test how well a neural network using deep learning can compete at Go. In games against other available Go programs, including Crazy Stone and Zen, AlphaGo running on a single computer won all but one.

In Octoberthe distributed version of AlphaGo defeated the European Go champion Fan Hui[19] a 2-dan out of 9 dan possible professional, five to zero. AlphaGo played South Korean professional Go player Lee Sedolranked 9-dan, one of the best players at Go, [14] [ needs update ] with five games taking place at the Four Seasons Hotel in SeoulSouth Korea on 9, 10, 12, 13, and 15 March[22] [23] which were video-streamed live. While he was ranked top sometimes, some sources ranked Lee Sedol as the fourth-best player in the world at the time.

The first three games were won by AlphaGo following resignations by Lee.

google win probability accuracy

AlphaGo then continued to achieve a fourth win, winning the fifth game by resignation. In Juneat a presentation held at a university in the Netherlands, Aja Huang, one of the Deep Mind team, revealed that they had patched the logical weakness that occurred during the 4th game of the match between AlphaGo and Lee, and that after move 78 which was dubbed the " divine move " by many professionalsit would play as intended and maintain Black's advantage.

Before move 78, AlphaGo was leading throughout the game, but Lee's move caused the program's computing powers to be diverted and confused. On 29 Decembera new account on the Tygem server named "Magister" shown as 'Magist' at the server's Chinese version from South Korea began to play games with professional players. It changed its account name to "Master" on 30 December, then moved to the FoxGo server on 1 January Many quickly suspected it to be an AI player due to little or no resting between games.

All 60 games except one were fast-paced games with three 20 or 30 seconds byo-yomi. Master offered to extend the byo-yomi to one minute when playing with Nie Weiping in consideration of his age. After winning its 59th game Master revealed itself in the chatroom to be controlled by Dr.

After these games were completed, the co-founder of Google DeepMind, Demis Hassabissaid in a tweet, "we're looking forward to playing some official, full-length games later [] in collaboration with Go organizations and experts".

Go experts were impressed by the program's performance and its nonhuman play style; Ke Jie stated that "After humanity spent thousands of years improving our tactics, computers tell us that humans are completely wrong I would go as far as to say not a single human has touched the edge of the truth of Go.

Google DeepMind offered 1. DeepMind also disbanded the team that worked on the game to focus on AI research in other areas. AlphaGo's team published an article in the journal Nature on 19 Octoberintroducing AlphaGo Zero, a version without human data and stronger than any previous human-champion-defeating version.

In a paper released on arXiv on 5 DecemberDeepMind claimed that it generalized AlphaGo Zero's approach into a single AlphaZero algorithm, which achieved within 24 hours a superhuman level of play in the games of chessshogiand Go by defeating world-champion programs, StockfishElmoand 3-day version of AlphaGo Zero in each case.

Many of the openings include human move suggestions. Two seconds of thinking time was given to each move. The resulting Elo ratings are listed below. In MayGoogle unveiled its own proprietary hardware " tensor processing units ", which it stated had already been deployed in multiple internal projects at Google, including the AlphaGo match against Lee Sedol.

In the Future of Go Summit in MayDeepMind disclosed that the version of AlphaGo used in this Summit was AlphaGo Master[58] [59] and revealed that it had measured the strength of different versions of the software.How much does a fumble affect the probability of winning an American football game? These are questions for which the coaching staff of National Football League teams have a clear qualitative answer. Turnovers are costly; turn the ball over several times and you will certainly lose.

In this study, we collected play-by-play data from the past 7 NFL seasons, i. Despite the fact that our model incorporates simple box score statistics, such as total offensive yards, number of turnovers etc.

Furthermore, we combine this descriptive model with a statistical bootstrap module to build FPM short for Football Prediction Matchup for predicting future match-ups. In particular, our evaluations indicate that our prediction engine performs on par with the current state-of-the-art systems e. The latter are typically proprietary but based on their components described publicly they are significantly more complicated than FPM. Moreover, their proprietary nature does not allow for a head-to-head comparison in terms of the core elements of the systems but it should be evident that the features incorporated in FPM are able to capture a large percentage of the observed variance in NFL games.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. While American football is viewed mainly as a physical game—and it surely is—at the same time it is probably one of the most strategic sports games, a fact that makes it appealing even to an international crowd [ 1 ].

This has led to people analyzing the game with the use of data analytics methods and game theory. For instance, after the controversial last play call of Super Bowl XLIX the Economist [ 2 ] argued by utilizing appropriate data and game theory that this play was rational and not that bad after all.

The ability to analyze and collect large volumes of data has put forward a quantification-based approach in modeling and analyzing the success in various sports during the last few years. For example, pertinent to American football, Clark et al. In another direction Pfitzner et al. Similarly, Correia et al. Furthermore, some of the existing models make strong theoretical assumptions that are hard to verify e. Close with our work, Cohea and Payton developed a logistic regression model to understand the factors affecting an NFL game outcome [ 11 ].

The benefit of our model as compared to the one presented by Cohea and Payton [ 11 ] is that the number of exploratory variables we are using is much smaller, making it easy for a fan to follow. Most importantly though we combine our model with statistical bootstrap in order to facilitate future game predictions something that the model presented in [ 11 ] is not able to perform. Of course, predictive models for NFL games have been developed by major sports networks.

Software companies have also developed their own models e. Nevertheless, these models are proprietary and are not open to the public. In this study we are first interested in providing a simple model that is able to quantify the impact of various factors on the probability of wining a game of American football. Can you really win a game after having turned the ball over 5 times?

While coaches and players know the qualitative answer to similar questions, the goal of our work is to provide a quantitative answer. For this purpose we use play-by-play data for the last seven seasons of the National Football League i.

We then use the Bradley-Terry regression model [ 1415 ] to quantify the effect and statistical significance of each of these factors on the probability of wining a game of American football.After the election and this game, it's probably time the "win probability" folks take a little break. Lessons learned can help us better understand how these models operate. A win probability is the likelihood that, given any time-state in the game, a certain team will win the game.

One interesting way to start is to visualize how each model viewed the Super Bowl. Thus, the wow-factor of the Patriots comeback depends on your source. Often, this is done by comparing win probability from from one play to the next using a metric called win probability added WPA.

Next, I sampled 5 plays in each quarter in each game from the season to use as test data total. I included points that average offensive team probabilities to the nearest 0.

The closer projections are to the diagonal line, the better. Observed versus estimated win probability for a sample of NFL plays. Across most bins in most quarters, probabilities reflect reality. Third quarter probabilities, as an example, look particularly reasonable.

Given the above, here is a set of recommendations for those of us creating or citing win probabilities. Unfortunately we will not be able to share with you our predictive model. However you can review the perks from our premium services to see how it all works and what we have to offer. If you have any further questions do not hesitate to reach out to us. However, after some offseason tuning, things appear to be more readily in order.

View all posts by statsbylopez. Reblogged this on Stats in the Wild and commented:. Hey Lopez, I have one comment that I think is crucial with these models. All the fancy models in the world are only as appropriate as the loss function that they are optimized for.

I think a crucial part of this discussion is what is the loss function? Hinge Loss?

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